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AI that actually works: built for chemical procurement

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Nabil Azim

<h3>Global trade shifts: A look back on tariffs </h3>
For decades, tariffs have been a go-to tool for governments looking to balance trade. But the trade war that kicked off during the Trump presidency in 2018 set off a groundbreaking shift in global supply chains—one that’s still playing out today. When it started, companies worldwide had no choice but to rethink their sourcing strategies as sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods sent costs soaring. At the time, cost was a heavy focus and any supply chain shifts were largely financially driven. That said, procurement and supply chain leaders found themselves scrambling to diversify away from China, hedging against future tariff spikes and the broader risks of geopolitical tension.
Then came the pandemic, and resilience took on a whole new meaning. It was no longer just about cost—it was about keeping supply lines open, period. The supply chain shocks of 2020 and 2021 exposed just how fragile global trade had become, with factory shutdowns, logistics bottlenecks, and raw material shortages wreaking havoc across industries. Businesses realized that risk management wasn’t just about mitigating financial exposure. It was about ensuring they could actually get the materials and products they needed, when they needed them. Just-in-time manufacturing suddenly felt like a liability, and just-in-case strategies started gaining traction. The focus on cost-focused movement quickly transformed into the famous, supply chain resilience.

And let’s be clear: this shift wasn’t just happening in the U.S. or Europe. Chinese companies had to act to solve for this as well, making their own strategic moves in response. If tariffs were coming and global corporations were making moves to diversify from China, they needed to find a way to stay in the game. Though, one has to look a little deeper into the supply chain in order to see this. 
Last year, one of the big news moments in supply chain revolved around US imports. US imports from Mexico surpassed those from China for the first time since the early 2000s—a milestone that initially could have passed as a one-time blip. At least, I don’t hear it talked about as much anymore. But fast-forward to 2024, and if you look at the data again, the pattern is holding. It appears that companies in the US are successfully diversifying away from China and identifying new sources of supply for their businesses.

Look a little deeper, though, and the picture gets even more interesting. We pulled the data on Chinese exports to Mexico, to see if there were any signs of movement in trade. It turns out there sure was! Chinese exports to Mexico have skyrocketed since 2020, just a couple of years after Trump’s tariffs kicked in. Coincidence? It doesn’t appear so. China isn’t necessarily losing direct exports to the U.S.—it’s just rerouting them. This looks like a calculated play, with China using Mexico as a backdoor into the U.S. market, sidestepping tariffs while still keeping its supply chain dominance intact. And it’s not just Mexico—similar patterns are emerging in Vietnam, India, and other manufacturing hubs that have become key players in the new global trade chessboard. If you’re paying attention to trade data, the message is clear: supply chain shifts are here to stay.

<h3>What now? The next wave is coming (and here)</h3>
With Trump back in office, tariff threats are shaking markets once again. The spectrum of possibilities ranges from “brace for impact” to “just political theater,” but if history tells us anything, it’s that something will happen. The only question is how severe and how soon.
Three key players are in focus: China, Canada, and Mexico. Given Mexico’s rising role as a trade hub for Chinese goods, it’s likely to face tighter scrutiny. But it doesn’t stop there—Europe is still on the radar. And beyond the tariffs the US may impose, retaliatory tariffs could drag everyone into the fight. The flow of goods may change completely. If China needs to find new markets to sell their goods at competitive (and low) prices, Europe will continue to be an option. Luxury goods, chemicals, and manufacturing in Europe are already feeling the pressure, and an influx of low-cost Chinese products into Europe could further disrupt markets.
The TLDR? This isn’t just about tariffs; it’s about the global trade landscape shifting again. Companies that see what’s coming and adapt will come out ahead. Those who wait will be stuck with unsatisfactory results, acting as followers, not leaders.

<h3>Act Now: Waiting Is Not a Strategy</h3>
Too many companies are in wait-and-see mode, hoping for clarity from the new administration before making a move. That’s a mistake. We’re already three months in and the only thing that is clear is that there is no clarity. What is the point of sitting and waiting all of this time?
Leaders don’t wait—they act. If you’re serious about protecting your supply chain, now is the time to start preparing for the worst and having that contingency plan ready once needed. Look at the Mexico example. That shift didn’t happen overnight—it took years of groundwork.
In chemicals, the same applies to qualifying new materials and suppliers. These processes can take months or even years, and every day you delay is a day lost to competitors who are already making moves. If competitors get to secure those diversified sources first, you’ll be waiting on allocation until the chemical manufacturers can scale their production up to meet demand. Start qualifying, start building those relationships. 
The smart play? Try out Valdera to start getting ahead now. Start building contingencies, diversifying suppliers, and ensuring your team is ready for whatever comes next. Because by the time the tariffs hit—it’ll be too late to start scrambling.

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